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| Flood menace |
By: Yemi Akinsuyi and
Tunde Sanni
Apart from Ekiti, Enugu, Katsina, Imo, Abia States and
Federal Capital Territory (FCT), all other states in Nigeria will experience a
devastating flood this year.
The states are Zamfara, Yobe, Sokoto, Rivers, Taraba,
Plateau, Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Niger, Nasarawa, Lagos, Kwara, Kogi, Kebbi, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Gombe,
Edo, Ebonyi, Delta, Cross Rivers, Benue, Bayelsa, Bauchi, Anambra, Akwa Ibom,
and Adamawa.
This was contained in 2013 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) for
Nigeria presented by the Director General, Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency
(NIHSA), John Shamonda.
Speaking after a three-day programme on the flood outlook,
organised by the NIHSA, Shamonda, said efforts were being geared towards
ensuring that the effect was less felt in these areas.
The DG explained that 156 Local Government Areas would
experience the devastating flood, while other areas might not be affected at
all.
“Floods and associated hazards may be inevitable, but they
can be minimised and turned into an opportunity to transform society into a
higher level of sustainability. This requires pro-activeness and a change of
paradigm from emergency management to flood risk management in order to avert a
disaster," he said.
The DG said his agency came to the conclusion of the flood
forecast based on the earlier report by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency
(NIMET), which led his team to assess flood outlook that came out with the
report.
He said: “The 2012 NIMET SRP drew the attention to high
rainfall which led to devastating floods across Nigeria. NIMET’s 2013 Seasonal
Rainfall Prediction (SRP) has again
indicated that high rainfalls are to be expected in some parts of the country
in 2013. In response to this prediction, the Nigerian Hydrological Services
Agency set up a Technical Committee to assess the Flood Outlook for 2013 in
Nigeria.
“In the absence of a reliable model adapted for flood
forecasting for the country, the committee adopted simple empirical techniques
of relating flood factors referenced to 2012 data and flood extent in
combination with spatial analysis using our own method to assess the flood
outlook for 2013 based on NIMET’s 2013 SRP data.
“The analysis of deviation in annual rainfall and length of
season, together with 2012 flow discharges observed at selected stations led to
the outlook of greater flooding scenario across the country than occurred in
2012. A digital map of the country showing the spatial extent of flooding to be
expected in 2013 is a major output of the assessment.”
Shamonda said the expected areas of worse scenario of river
flooding were located in the Komadugu Yobe Basin and the Niger and Benue
troughs.
“The peak floods at the confluence of Rivers Niger and Benue
to the Niger Delta are also expected to be as high as the 2012 floods. The
worst scenario are expected in Kogi, Edo, Delta and Anambra States, the Coastal
Delta States of Bayelsa, Rivers and Delta and some States in the Southwest such
as Ondo, Ogun, and Lagos are expected to have coastal flooding.
“Also flash floods are expected in major urban centres of
Lagos, Port Harcourt, Kano, Yola, Onitsha, Oshogbo, Ibadan, except where urban
drainage facilities may have been cleared of debris and waste dumps.
As part of efforts in cushioning the effect of the flood,
the NIHSA boss recommended that the major reservoirs on the Komadugu, Yobe
Basin and the Niger and Benue basins should be lowered of storage in May and
June in order to accommodate flood water arriving from July.
Continuing, he said: “Governments at all levels should
create awareness on the need for communities to relocate to safer terrain. The
need to develop flood modelling and early warning systems cannot be
overemphasized with current trends in climate and weather change.
“There is also need to carry out a comprehensive flood
hazard map for all areas considered at risk of flooding in the country”.
While commending the NIHSA for the early warning given to
Nigerians concerning flood in 2013, Minister of Water Resources, Mrs. Sarah
Ochkepe urged the people to incorporate risk management principles in water
resources management, prevent flood hazards turning into disasters, as well as
increasing multidisciplinary approaches in flood management.
Ochekpe also enjoined Nigerians to improve information on
integrated flood management approaches, alleviate poverty through preventive
and response strategies for flood vulnerable sections and finally enhance
community participation in irrigation and appropriate adaption.
“The 2013 Flood Outlook is a flood risk management element
which entails multidisciplinary contributions to improve information that will
promote preventive and responsive strategies in mitigating the impacts of
floods through informed decisions by relevant authorities and agencies
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