Thursday 11 October 2012

Govt defends $75 oil price benchmark in 2013 budget proposal

Ngozi-Okonjo-Iweala

The Federal Government yesterday defended its insistence to maintain $75 per barrel oil price benchmark for crude oil in 2013 budget, saying there was need to safeguard the nation’s economy from vagaries of the commodity’s price at the international market and the inflationary trend.

Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Finance Minister, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, told newsmen that the action was in line with what is obtainable in all oil dependent nations globally.

Iweala, who shed more light on the 2013 spending proposal, therefore appealed to members of the National Assembly to see reasons with the benchmark proposal, as contained in the 2013 fiscal spending plan.

The House of Representatives, last Tuesday, while passing the Medium Term Expenditure Framework upon which the 2013 Fiscal plan is drawn, described the $75 benchmark proposal by the executive as very conservative and vowed to raise the benchmark by $5 in order to jerk it up to $80.

But Iweala yesterday defended the $75 Benchmark price, saying it was arrived at following sound macro-economic analyses

“The Benchmark price is sensible at $75. We will put forward the argument on why we want $75. We did this on the basis of a model that estimate moving average for the next five years. This is a price that is similar with what other countries that are oil dependent are using.

“What we are pricing is within the armbit of what other countries are using. It is to safeguard the economy. If we go with the $80 benchmark proposal a lot of liquidity would be thrown into the economy and this can lead to higher inflation and exchange rate depreciation. And this chokes off the private sector.

“We also have to be mindful that the art of forecasting is a tricky one becuase the prices are volatile. Even the World Bank and IMF has just released a forecast, which says the recovery would be slow and demand low. That’s why we want to be more caution and very prudent,” the Finance Minister further defended.

The minister explained that it was in line with the same philosophy of fiscal prudence that the Federal Government was embarking on checking the now rising domestic debt stock which is to go down this year by N17 billion, falling from N852 billion in 2011, N744 billion in 2012, and to N727 billion in 2013.

And to ensure that government does not roll over her debt commitment, she said for the first time, a sinking fund of N100 billion was being established in the 2013 fiscal year for repaying government’s maturing debt obligations and to curb the rising domestic debt profile.

But the House of Representatives yesterday said the $75 per barrel of crude oil as announced by President Goodluck Jonathan in his budget speech was unrealistic and therefore unacceptable.

Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, Abdulmumin Jibril, who fielded questions in a reaction to the budget presentation during a session from reporters, said the explanation by the executive that by fixing the benchmark at $75, it would be able to save more for the country does not hold water.

In approving the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), the House of Representatives had jerked the benchmark from $75 to $80.

He said the decision of the Parliament was meant to finance the deficit of N1.037 trillion in the 2013 budget, adding that if the $80 benchmark is adopted, the deficit would be cut down to N666.234 billion.

He explained that the submission by the Executive that it intends to save was not tenable adding that the ‘economics of savings’ being propagated by the executive was not in the best interest of the nation.

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